Range Analysis como metodologia para análise de riscos em orçamentos de projetos de capital: estudo de caso em um projeto de mineração.

Abstract

In a scenario of capital Project expansion, especially in the mining sector in Brasilian Territory, ensuring the sucesso of these ventures becomes a priority of the investing companies. However, many of these projects, which involve significant investiments and long planning and execution periods, fail to achieve the financial ojectives set. The main factor contribuing to this fluctuation in results is the lack of effective risk management, capable of identifyng and mitiganting deviations. Altought there are tools for qualitative risk assessment, the results often lack clarity and direction for decision-making, in addition to requiring considerable investments, such as hiring specialists and expensive software. In response of this limitations, the Range Analysis methodology emerges as na adaptation of PERT method, offering a simple nad effective budget assessment by considering three distinct scenarios: optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic. The methodology is based on a qualitative evaluation from project participants, promoting shared risk management, followed by quantitative analysis that evaluates potential cost fluctuations. As a result, Range Analysis provides managers with clearer view of cost variations while aligning decisions with the project’s objectivies, allowing for the formulation of na appropriate risk management plan. Is the way, the methodology offers a pragmatic approach to tackling the challenges of large capital projects, providing a solid foundation for more assertive decision-make and more efficient risk management, promoting greater security and transparency for the prokect’s investors.