Fatores determinísticos da inadimplência do IPTU em Governador Valadares: uma análise dos impactos da revisão da planta de valores no cenário da dívida ativa (2020-2024)

Abstract

This study investigated the determinants of IPTU delinquency in Governador Valadares during the 2020–2024 period and assessed the effects of the revision of the Generic Value Map (Planta Genérica de Valores, PGV) applied in 2022–2023. A quantitative case study was used, combining fiscal and cadastral data with market samples and multiple linear regression modeling, in accordance with ABNT NBR 14653. A progressive increase in delinquency was observed over the period, with spatial concentration in a small number of neighborhoods. The comparison between assessed property values and market estimates revealed cases of underassessment and overassessment, varying by region. It was found that the technical update of the PGV is necessary but insufficient when implemented alone; socio-spatial factors (irregular occupation, local economic profile), operational failures (issuance of tax bills, collection system), and cadastral deficits also contribute to outstanding debt. Consequently, it is recommended to institutionalize periodic, technically grounded revisions of the PGV, promote the cadastral updating of taxpayers, improve billing and collection processes, and adopt complementary policies (installment plans, amnesties, and tax incentives) to reduce delinquency and strengthen municipal revenue.