O uso do NSGA-II para maximizar o lucro e a distribuição dos recursos entre apostas esportivas

The online sports betting market is on the rise, generating tens of billions of dollars. The conventional approach of capitalizing on opportunities arising from mispricing in bookmakers (surebets) may not be sustainable when employed without moderation. High investments aimed at maximizing profit make it easier to identify this strategy, resulting in potential restrictions, cancellation of bets, or even account blocking by bookmakers. This work proposes the development of a software prototype to optimize profit and efficiently distribute resources among a set of available surebets, leveraging opportunities arising from bookmakers’ errors. The proposed solution adopts the use of the NSGA-II meta- heuristic, a multi-objective approach, to generate solutions that maximize not only profit but also optimize the distribution of investment among bets with the intention of avoiding blocks and/or limitations. Using data collected from January to October 2023 through an API and the development of an algorithm, we assembled a dataset containing over 2,400 games and hundreds of identified surebets. To validate the algorithm, four scenarios were considered, exploring different crossover operators. With the metaheuristic parameterized, a set of solutions is generated that maximizes profit and efficiently distributes resources among surebets. The results achieved by this work translate into a software prototype that provides adaptable solutions for various profiles of bettors, from the more conser- vative, who prefer to distribute investments among several surebets, to the more daring, who seek to maximize profit and prefer to invest in the surebet that offers the highest return.