Excesso de confiança gerencial e desempenho

Abstract

The Modern Finance Theory, a theoretical current that assumes full rationality of financial market participants, has been challenged by Behavioral Finance literature, which highlights the influence of cognitive biases such as managerial overconfidence in organizational decision-making. This dissertation aims to explore managerial overconfidence and its effects in the Brazilian corporate context through a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis, an empirical article analyzing the bias’s influence on the performance of publicly traded Brazilian companies, and a technical product that transforms the empirical article’s results into an interactive tool for the dissemination and practical application of knowledge. The systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis cover 210 articles from the Web of Science and Scopus databases, published between 2005 and 2023, revealing a variety of methods for measuring overconfidence and emphasizing the lack of a consensual standard. Furthermore, it shows that the thematic evolution of the research field has shifted from a general corporate governance approach to a more detailed analysis of the impact of overconfidence on business performance. The empirical article contributes by demonstrating, with data from publicly traded Brazilian companies, that managerial overconfidence negatively affects corporate performance, especially Tobin’s Q. It highlights the proxy oc3 (debt-to-market value ratio) as the most robust measure of the bias, shows positive effects of overconfidence on ROE during the pandemic, and indicates that its influence occurs in financing decisions, but not in investment decisions. Finally, the technical product contributes by transforming the empirical article’s results into an interactive tool, accessible via the “Overconfidence” app, which organizes and provides data and analyses about managerial overconfidence in Brazilian companies. This solution facilitates knowledge dissemination, expands the research’s reach to academics and professionals, and strengthens the practical application and understanding of the topic within the context of behavioral finance.