MODELAGEM DA APTIDÃO EDAFOCLIMÁTICA DO EUCALIPTO EM MINAS GERAIS FRENTE AOS CENÁRIOS DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS

Abstract

Minas Gerais holds a leading position in Brazilian forest production, with extensive eucalyptus plantations that support strategic pulp and steelmaking supply chains. This study aimed to model the edaphoclimatic zoning for eucalyptus cultivation in the state, comparing current suitability with future projections (2080–2100) under different CMIP6/IPCC emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5). The methodology used the Google Earth Engine platform to process and integrate climatic, topographic, and soil datasets, applying map algebra techniques and variable weighting for territorial classification. Results for the current scenario indicate that, despite favorable soil and relief conditions across much of the state, rainfall irregularity is the main limiting factor. Climate projections reveal a future scenario of “dual limitation,” driven by rising temperatures and intensifying water deficits, resulting in a severe contraction of suitable areas in the Northern and Jequitinhonha regions. A clear trend of productive suitability shifting toward Southern Minas Gerais and Campo das Vertentes was observed, where higher elevations provide climatic refuges under global warming. It is concluded that the sustainability of forestry in Minas Gerais will depend on the spatial reconfiguration of plantations and the adoption of genetic adaptation and management strategies to mitigate emerging climate risks.